Absence

In luei of my favorite writer, Noah C. Rothman, I’m gonna write from his sober perspective. At Mediaite, he’s talking about Iran almost 3 years ago and the entire scope of the power of the Islamic world. He focuses mainly on the region; that is in flux, as Mr. Rothman stated while he was at HotAir.com.

Two years later, White House officials would tell that same reporter that they believed Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu was a “chickens***

 You see, Rothman calls the proxie player, Iran, out directly in the HotAir piece. He’s been saying the region is in flux for quite sometimes. It seemed dire for a while. However, good news was circulated.  

Cut that supply line #Kurds and then roll into Raqqa. Put those sons of bitches to bed.-Me

And they did. 

#UPDATE Syria Kurds cut key supply road to IS-held Raqa: commander u.afp.com/Z4aT

Check the time stamps, I’m almost 24 hours ahead of that major publication. That’s just a display of my own ability to pay attention. While good news, no doubt, the region is in no way out of trouble. The Islamist-Baathist fused factions, Daesh or ISIS, are fracturing but have an uncanny ability to regroup. Which they will no doubt attempt to do. The more they’re driven from Raqqa, the more they’ll move towards Ramadi which fell a few months ago and Mosul, which was taken by them last year. 

“Let them rot” via @selectedwisdom.
Hopefully, the Kurds sped that up by cutting the supply line to Raqqa. 
1:07pm – 15 Jun 15

Clint Watts, another foreign policy expert, said

The recipe of the the “Let Them Rot” strategy should be followed: contain ISIS advances, starve them of resources, fracture their ranks, and exploit through alternative security arrangements. 

Which is a slightly less depressing way of saying, the United States and it’s coalition shouldn’t/isn’t going to do much more than it already is to intervene in Iraq and Syria. It’s too costly and neither Obama or the country can stomach a full scale return to that theater of operation. 

Here’s the really exciting news. 

If they got this guy and Belmokhtar, that’s huge.  longwarjournal.org/archives/2014/… 3:07pm – 15 Jun 15-Me
This guy is Nasir al Wuhayshi, al Qaeda’s (AQ) number two. 

Now we have this, confirmation of the afore mentioned Wuhayshi’s demise. That, with rumors of Belmokhtar’s death shows an end to the structure of AQAP and it’s affiliates. Mokhtar Belmokhtar did most of his dealings in the Maghreb, the north west part of Africa. Lybia is pretty Far East for his sphere of influence. 

To hit Yemen and Lybia in one day is quite a feat for our military and intellegence agencies. Rothman says:

The president did his best to shift blame for his failure of leadership onto Pentagon commanders. Obama claimed that Defense Department officials had not yet presented to him a “finalized” plan for victory in Iraq that consists of relying on Iraqi Security Forces to serve as the primary ground combat forces. But what if the plan that the president wants is simply unfeasible? The U.S. was reportedly caught “off guard” by the spectacular implosion of the ISF in the summer of last year, as waves of ISIS forces poured over the Syrian border and sacked city after city including Mosul, the second largest urban center in Iraq. By November of 2014, U.S. troops began speeding the training and equipping of Iraqi Security Forces in preparation for an assault on that city that never came. Now Ramadi, the capital of restive Anbar province and a city located just 70 miles from the seat of Iraqi governance, has also fallen to ISIS. The return on American investment in the ISF seems a long way off.

That’s Iraq, which I’ll mourn, but will celebrate the possible elimination of Belmokhtar and Wuhayshi. It may bring new obstacles, especially now that AQ seems to be decentralized, but I have faith in our imperfect military machine. Despite it’s Commander in Chief having no discernable strategy for that country, he so hastily pulled out of Iraq in 2011 and then blames his department of defense for not providing him with a strategy. I’m gonna guess the DOD did have a strategy, he probably just didn’t like what it was. That country is in deep trouble, for the most part our only reference to it is to blame the people who got us there in the first place. On one hand, people skreetch and bellow about the previous president, Bush the Younger, going in based on shoddy intel. He’s called stupid and brash. On the the other hand, we have our current POTUS, Barack Obama, who followed the strategy and policy to withdraw from Iraq drawn up by the previous president. It’s natural, except, Obama campaigned hard on not following Bush’s policies. Which is exactly what he’s doing. That’s the defense offered up by the White House and it’s supporters when Mr. Obama is criticized for the withdrawal. “He was just following Bush’s plan”, they’ll say. Well, if the criticisms of Bush are true, Obama followed the policies of an idiot, that hardly makes Obama some sort of exhalted intellectual. It makes him seem lazy, to be frank. I don’t think Obama, or any serious people, ever thought Bush was actually a highly functional simpleton. They just didn’t like his party or his willingness to fight and unwillingness to apologies for Americas exceptional ability to wage war. 

Getting AQ’s number two and their most effective commander in northwest Africa are bright moments for our military, even if they continue to take the blame for an increasingly bleak landscape in the region by the person who is suppose to be leading them. 

That’s my sober look at the info at hand. That’s my analysis. It didn’t seem hard. There is an absence, an absence of strategy. 

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